Developers plan to expand U.S. battery capacity to more than 30 GW by the end of 2024. Planned and currently operational U.S. utility-scale battery capacity totaled around 16 GW at the end of 2023.

Battery storage in the U.S. has been growing since 2021. This is especially true in California and Texas, two states that have seen rapid renewable energy growth.

California has the most installed battery storage capacity of any state with 7.3 GW, with Texas with 3.2 GW. All other states combined have a total of around of 3.5 GW of installed capacity.

According to EIA, the five largest new U.S. battery storage projects scheduled to be deployed in California and Texas in 2024 or 2025 are:

• Lunis Creek BESS SLF (Texas, 621 MW)
• Clear Fork Creek BESS SLF (Texas, 600 MW
• Hecate Energy Ramsey Storage (Texas, 500 MW)
• Bellefield Solar and Energy Storage Farm (California, 500 MW)
• Dogwood Creek Solar and BESS (Texas, 443 MW)

Solar to continue growth, gas to remain unchanged

EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook is the first to include forecasts for 2025.

The agency projects solar power to be the leading source of growth in electricity generation in both 2024 and 2025, as 36 GW and 43 GW of new solar capacity come on line, respectively. The new capacity would boost the solar share of total generation to 6% in 2024 and 7% in 2025, up from 4% in 2023.

Coal-fired capacity would continue to plummet the next two years, according to EIA projections. EIA expects a decline by 9% in 2024 and by 10% in 2025, with 12 GW of coal-fired capacity retiring over the next two years.

Accordingly, EIA projects U.S. coal production to decline by more than 90 million short tons (MMst) to less than 490 MMst in 2024 and then fall below 430 MMst in 2025, the least coal produced in the U.S. since the early 1960s.

EIA expects generation from natural gas to not change in 2024 and 2025, compared with 2023.

16 natural gas-fired plants are expected to come online this year, EIA said in its Monthly Electric Generator Inventory. This includes both combined-cycle and simple-cycle plants concentrated near the Gulf Coast and Appalachia regions, as well as in Florida. Ten of these plants have already come online.

In 2022, 11 natural gas-fired power plants came online, adding 5.6 GW of capacity. Total natural gas-fired capacity additions increased in both 2022 and 2023 after declines in the previous three consecutive years.

EIA expects 20 new gas-fired power plants to come online in 2024 and 2025, with a total capacity of 7.7 GW.

During 2022 and 2023, a total of 13 new combined-cycle plants will have entered service. The average output for each of the plants in 900 MW of electric generating capacity. EIA expects 4.9 GW of additional CCGT additions in 2024 and 2025

During 2022 and 2023, 14 simple-cycle plants will have begun operations. The average output for each of the plants is almost 140 MW of electric generating capacity. Over half of the new SCGT capacity coming online in 2022 and 2023 is located in Texas, which has periods of high daily peak electricity demand throughout the summer and has had significant growth in renewable energy during the last few years.

EIA is projecting global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to increase through 2050 in all forecasted cases except its Low Economic Growth case.

While the world would continue to shift from fossil to non-fossil energy sources, EIA said this would be offset by global population growth, regional economic shifts toward more manufacturing and increased energy consumption as living standards improve.

EIA projects global electricity generation will increase by 30% to 76% in 2050 from 2022 across all cases and will primarily be met by zero-carbon technologies.

For all cases, EIA projects that 81% to 95% of the new electric-generating capacity installed from 2022 to 2050 will be zero-carbon technologies. As a result, by 2050, the combined share of coal and natural gas would fall to between 27% and 38% of the installed global generating capacity.

According to the projections, renewables and nuclear could provide as much as two-thirds of global electricity generation by 2050.

EIA does project global renewable energy consumption, particularly solar and wind, to grow faster than any other energy source. The projected rise in renewable energy consumption is largely driven by its increased use in the electric power sector.

Battery storage capacity is projected to increase from less than 1% of global power capacity in 2022 to a range of 4% to 9% of global power capacity by 2050.

Read the full International Energy Outlook here.