The shift continues to be driven by solar and wind capacity additions. Utility-scale solar capacity in the U.S. increased from 61 GW in 2021 to 71 GW in 2022, according to EIA. Wind capacity grew from 133 GW in 2021 to 141 GW in 2022. The combined wind and solar share of total generation increased from 12% in 2021 to 14% in 2022.

Hydropower generation remained unchanged, at 6%, in 2022. Shares of biomass and geothermal sources remained unchanged, at less than 1%.

In 2022, EIA reports California ranked first in utility-scale solar generation, producing 26% of the country’s share. Texas was the second-largest producing state (16%), followed by North Carolina (8%). Several of the largest solar plants built in the United States in the last three years are located in Texas, including the 275 MW Noble solar plant, which started operations in 2022.

Texas led the U.S. in wind power, accounting for 26% of total U.S. wind generation in 2022. The Lonestar State was followed by Iowa (10%) and Oklahoma (9%).

According to EIA, the share of generation from coal declined from 23% in 2021 to 20% in 2022, as some coal-fired plants retired and other operating plants were used less.

Generation from renewables passed nuclear for the first time in 2021 and continued to provide more electricity than nuclear in 2022. The share of nuclear generation decreased from 20% in 2021 to 19% in 2022, following the Palisades nuclear power plant’s retirement in May 2022.

Natural gas remains the largest source of U.S. electricity generation, increasing from a 37% share of U.S. generation in 2021 to 39% in 2022, according to EIA data.

Data source: EIA, Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, December 2022

Operators plan to retire 15.6 GW of electric-generating capacity in the United States during 2023, mostly natural gas-fired (6.2 GW) and coal-fired (8.9 GW) power plants, according to the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA).

EIA said that substantial U.S. coal-fired capacity has retired over the past decade, and a record 14.9 GW was retired in 2015.

Annual coal retirements averaged 11.0 GW a year from 2015 to 2020, fell to 5.6 GW in 2021, and then rose to 11.5 GW in 2022.

In 2023, power plant owners and operators plan to retire 8.9 GW of coal-fired capacity, around 4.5% of the total coal-fired capacity at the start of the year.

Most coal-fired power plants currently operating were built in the 1970s and 1980s. As these plants compete with a growing number of natural gas-fired plants and low-cost renewables, more coal-fired units are being retired.

EIA said the largest coal-fired power plant expected to retire this year is the 1,490 MW W.H. Sammis Power Plant in Ohio. The oldest four of the plant’s seven coal-fired units were retired in 2020; the last three units are slated to shut down this year, along with the plant’s five petroleum-fired units (13 MW of combined capacity).

Pleasants Power Station (1,278 MW) is the second-largest coal-fired power plant retirement expected this year. Energy Harbor, which plans to become a carbon-free electricity supplier by the end of this year, owns both W.H. Sammis and Pleasants.

In addition, some 6.2 GW of natural gas-fired capacity is slated to retire, roughly 1.3% of the operating natural gas fleet as of January. Most of that retiring capacity is made up of older steam and combustion turbine units.

Three aging natural gas-fired plants in California (Alamitos, Huntington Beach, and Redondo Beach), with a combined 2.2 GW of capacity, are scheduled to retire. These plants were originally slated to retire in 2020 but were granted a three-year extension to maintain grid reliability.

Data source: EIA, Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, December 2022

Petroleum-fired power plants make up a small portion of generating capacity at around 2.2%. Most of these plants are seldom run and serve as peaker plants. This year, around 0.4 GW of petroleum-fired capacity is scheduled to retire.

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

Increased power generation from new renewables capacity—mostly wind and solar—are expected to reduce generation from both coal-fired and natural gas-fired power plants in 2023 and 2024.

With new solar and wind projects coming online this year, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) now forecasts that these two energy sources will account for 16% of total generation in 2023. That would be up from 14% in 2022 and 8% in 2018.

By contrast, EIA’s forecast share of generation from coal falls from 20% in 2022 to 18% in 2023. The forecast share from natural gas declines from 39% to 38%.

EIA said that one big shift in the mix of electricity generation over the past few years has been the rapid expansion of renewable energy resources, especially solar and wind. It said the electric power sector operated about 74 GW of solar photovoltaic capacity at the end of 2022, about three times the capacity at the end of 2017. Wind power has grown by more than 60% since 2017 to about 143 GW of capacity.

Based on planned additions reported to EIA, solar capacity is forecast to expand another 63 GW (84%) by the end of 2024. EIA said that growth is consistent with its declining construction costs and favorable tax credits. Based on these factors, EIA said it expects that the solar generation share will rise from 3% of U.S. generation in 2022 to 5% in 2023 and 6% in 2024.

Scheduled growth in wind power is slightly slower this year than in recent years, EIA said, at about 12 GW of new planned capacity over the next two years. The forecast wind generation share in 2023 remains similar to last year, EIA said, averaging 11%, and then rising to 12% in 2024.

Much of the solar capacity growth is in Texas and California, where natural gas has been the primary source of electricity. A growing share of generation from renewables, along with a forecast of less overall electricity demand in 2023, displaces some natural gas generation, EIA said. The fuel’s share is expected to fall from 39% in 2022 to 38% in 2023 and to 37% in 2024.

EIA said it also expects that the coal generation share will fall by two percentage points to 18% this year, as lower natural gas fuel costs make coal a less competitive source for electricity supply. EIA’s forecast of coal generation falls again in 2024 to 17%.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported summer capacity factors for the nation’s fleet of nuclear power plants. No fewer than 21 nuclear units had capacity factors that exceeded 100%.

And Nine Mile Point Nuclear Station unit 2 in New York topped the list in 2021, with a 111.4% summer capacity utilization factor. Altogether, 93 reactors were in operation at the time.

According to EIA data, 21 reactors achieved a capacity factor above 100% last year:

• Nine Mile Point unit 2: 111.4%
• Prairie Island unit 1: 104.9%
• Calvert Cliffs unit 1: 103.4%
• Peach Bottom unit 2: 103.3%
• Donald C. Cook unit 1: 103.1%
• Vogtle unit 2: 102.5%
• Limerick unit 1: 102.5%
• Byron unit 2: 102.4%
• Oconee unit 1: 102.2%
• North Anna unit 2: 102.2%
• McGuire unit 1: 102.1%
• Cooper unit 1: 102%
• LaSalle unit 1: 101.9%
• PSEG Salem unit 1: 101.7%
• Quad Cities unit 2: 101.6%
• Oconee unit 3: 101.6%
• Turkey Point unit 4: 100.6%
• Palisades unit 1 (retired): 100.6%
• Palo Verde unit 1: 100.3%
• Diablo Canyon unit 1: 100.3%
• Joseph M. Farley unit 2: 100.2%

U.S. reactors have supplied around 20% of the nation’s power since the 1990s and are the largest producer of nuclear energy in world.

According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), nuclear energy provided half of America’s carbon-free electricity in 2021, making it the largest domestic source of clean energy.    

Nine Mile Point’s two reactor units have generation capacity of more than 2 GW. Unit 1 was commissioned in 1969 and is the nation’s oldest commercial power reactor. The plant is operated by Constellation Energy.

Capacity factors measure how intensively a generating unit runs. EIA said it calculates capacity factors by dividing the actual electrical energy produced by a generating unit by the maximum possible electrical energy that could have been produced if the generator operated at continuous full power.

Electric power generated from U.S. natural-gas fired plants reached 6.37 million MWh on July 21, a record high according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Hourly Electric Grid Monitor.

The EIA said despite relatively high natural gas prices, demand for natural gas-fired power was strong as a result of above-normal temperatures, reduced coal-fired electricity generation, and recent natural gas-fired capacity additions.

EIA said that this past July was especially hot, ranking as the third hottest on record in the United States. Electricity demand usually peaks in the summer because of demand for air conditioning.

Before this year, the previous daily peak for natural gas-fired electricity generation had occurred on July 27, 2020, when natural gas prices were historically low.

This summer, coal-fired power plants have not been used as much as in prior summers. EIA cited continued retirements of coal-fired generating plants, relatively high coal prices, and lower-than-average coal stocks at power plants that have limited coal consumption. The agency said that during May, coal inventories at power plants averaged 20% lower than the prior-year levels.

In June we wrote about how rail service issues were delaying coal shipments to utilities.

New natural gas-fired capacity has also played a part. Over the past 10 years, developers have added about 62 GW of combined-cycle gas turbine capacity, EIA said.

Coal plant operators seek flexibility

Electric power produced from coal has been declining in the U.S. over the past 10 years, falling to a 46-year low of 773,393 GWh in 2020.

The decline in U.S. coal-fired generation has mostly been a result of these plants becoming uneconomical compared with other sources, EIA said. Nearly one-third of the U.S. coal-fired fleet has been retired since 2008.

EIA reported that other coal plant owners have tried to make their plants more competitive and fuel flexible, rather than permanently shutter them.

The agency identified 13 U.S. plants that converted to become fuel flexible in the past five years. Eight of these plants are in the southeastern United States, mostly in Florida and the Carolinas. Arizona, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Oklahoma each have one plant. The 13 plants have a total generating capacity of 16,522 MW.

The 13 fuel-flexible plants have collectively diversified their fuel mix, consuming increasing amounts of natural gas. The share of natural gas use versus coal use at these plants increased from 10% natural gas in 2018 to 30% natural gas late in 2019, before reaching 38% natural gas in 2020, according to data from EIA’s Power Plant Operations Report.