Global Nuclear Development Potential

By Ernst & Young

In the first of Ernst & Young’s annual Nuclear Perspectives series, the authors assess the attractiveness of 21 countries that are either pursuing new nuclear development or have a large fleet of nuclear stations in need of replacement.

The 21 countries selected were chosen for their nuclear potential. Most, but not all, have a current nuclear capability and they represent both short- and long-term opportunities for investors.

Five clusters of countries sharing similar drivers were identified, giving investors insight into the relative strengths of one country over another and the relevant issues within each group.

The Country Positioning Map shows the relative position of countries based on three leading factors:

• Scale of opportunity: assessed by both the size of capacity needed (present and future) and the urgency for new investment.
• Government support and regulatory capacity for new nuclear development: includes the regulatory framework, previous experience with nuclear across regulatory and licensing bodies, level of government support and public opinion.
• Market and investment framework: includes ease of access to international market capital, power market competitiveness and available economic incentives for nuclear.

Analysis by country is important for all stakeholders—utilities, regulators, governments, construction companies and technology vendors—to plan their investments and/or encourage investment in their countries. We recognize interested parties will select countries based on different criteria and also that a country may be attractive to different investors for different reasons.

The countries fall into five clusters, as shown in the figure:

• Growth engines: countries with major build programs that are meeting an urgent capacity need (China, India, Russia)
• Steady bets: existing nuclear countries with plans to renew their fleets or re-enter the market (Canada, Italy, Japan, South Korea, U.K., U.S.)
• European new wave: the only two European countries building new generation, passively safe reactors at present (Finland, France)
• Good prospects: emerging markets with existing programs that need to be renewed, and new countries with a stated desire to enter the market (Brazil, South Africa, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates)
• Sleepers: either existing nuclear countries with no current plans to replace their fleet or very low requirements for new build (Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland)

Click here to enlarge image

Related Articles

Babcock & Wilcox receives $246 million contract for coal-to-gas project

Michigan regulators reject Consumers Energy proposal to exit biomass plant PPAs early

Navigating the transition: Insights from Siemens Energy North America President Rich Voorberg

Hydropower investment opportunities in U.S. remain untapped, per NREL report